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Federal Liberal Leadership Race (April, 2013)

Latest Blog Post

Guest Post: A Referendum on Electability – The 2013 LPC Leadership Race

Although crazy work commitments are keeping me away from all the blogging I'd like to be doing, we were fortunate to snag a guest-post from a political scientist who studied the recent federal Liberal leadership race. Thanks to David McGrane for sharing his recent data and findings with Pundits' Guide readers. ——————– A Referendum on […]

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Leadership Calendar

2011
Tue May 3 Michael Ignatieff steps down as Liberal Leader
Constitutional 5-month countdown to set leadership vote-date starts
Wed May 25 Bob Rae appointed Interim Liberal Leader
Sat Jun 18 Extraordinary Liberal party convention postpones leadership vote to sometime between Mar 1-June 30, 2013
Sat Dec 11 Daniel Paillé wins Bloc Québécois leadership contest
2012
Sat Jan 14 Liberal convention in Ottawa creates party Supporter status with leadership voting rights
Sat Mar 24 Tom Mulcair wins NDP leadership contest
Sun Apr 22 Liberal national Board of Directors strikes Leadership Vote and Expenses Committee
Wed Jun 13 Liberal national Board of Directors announces leadership vote to be in April, 2013
Tue Sep 4 Liberal caucus meets in Montebello, QC
Thu Sep 6 Liberal leadership rules announced
Liberal leadership spending limits in effect
Mon Sep 17 House of Commons reconvenes in Ottawa
First day a by-election could be called in Victoria
Mon Oct 8 House of Commons adjourns for a constituency week (Thanksgiving - Mon Oct 8)
Mon Oct 29 First date on which a by-election could be held in Victoria
Mon Nov 12 House of Commons adjourns for a constituency week (Remembrance Day - Sun Nov 11)
Wed Nov 14 Liberal Leadership Contest officially starts
Leadership Contestant Registration Report due upon Registration with Elections Canada
Tue Dec 4 Last day a by-election can be called in Calgary Centre
Fri Dec 14 House of Commons to adjourn for Christmas break
2013
Mon Jan 14 Last day to register as a Liberal Leadership Contestant (90 days before voting day)
First Monday at least 36 days after the last date on which a by-election could be called in Calgary Centre
Fri Jan 25 Ontario Liberal leadership vote, in Toronto
Mon Jan 28 House of Commons provisionally set to reconvene
Sun Mar 3 Last day to take out a Liberal membership / supporter status with leadership voting rights (41 days before voting day)
Mon Mar 18 Voter registration begins for Liberal members/supporters (27 days before voting day)
Sun Mar 24 1st/4 Weekly Contributions Reports to Elections Canada due
Sun Mar 31 2nd/4 Weekly Contributions Reports to Elections Canada due
Sat Apr 6 Final leadership speeches showcase
Sun Apr 7 3rd/4 Weekly Contributions Reports to Elections Canada due
Sun Apr 14 Result Day; Liberal Leadership Contest officially ends
4th/4 Weekly Contributions Reports to Elections Canada due
Mon Oct 14 Final Leadership Contestant Financial Report to Elections Canada due

Liberal Election History, 1997-2011

Chart: Liberal Election History, 1997-2011

The Facebook Counts

(NOTE: The FB plug-ins below only work for Facebook "pages", not for personal profiles or groups.)

Québec
Ontario
British Columbia
Dreamland

Older Blogposts from punditsguide.ca

Mar 13Liberals doing it all wrong
Feb 17UPDATED: A Tale of Two Leadership Races
Jan 31Trudeau Q4 Fundraising Juggernaut Signals Beginning of the End of the Liberal Leadership Race
Jan 17UPDATED: Tactical Implications of the Liberal Leadership Rules
Dec 1Liberal Leadership could be settled by fundraising
Sep 23Pundits’ Guide to the Liberal Leadership Contest
Aug 24UPDATED: Fall By-election Calendar Shaping up Ahead of Supreme Court Ruling
Jul 31Party Second Quarter Returns Hint at Trends Worth Watching
Jun 13What the Liberals can learn from the NDP Leadership Race
Jan 5The NDP’s Previous Experience with Leadership Primaries
Sep 14Pundits’ Guide to the NDP Leadership Contest
Sep 2One Candidate Stands Out in post-2006 Liberal Leadership Fundraising
Aug 31Leadership Rules Need Changing

The Twitter Counts

Québec
Ontario
British Columbia
Dreamland

Registered Leadership Contestants as of the Jan 13, 2013 deadline.

Justin Trudeau - Website - announced October 2, 2012 - registered with Liberal Party by November 17, 2012

Deborah Coyne - Website - announced June 27, 2012 - registered with Liberal Party on November 22, 2012

Martha Hall Findlay - Website - announced November 14, 2012 - registered with Liberal Party by December 4, 2012

Joyce Murray - Website - announced November 26, 2012 - announced exploratory committee set up September 26, 2012 - registered with Liberal Party by December 4, 2012

Marc Garneau - Website - announced November 28, 2012 - registered with Liberal Party by December 4, 2012

Karen McCrimmon - Website - announced November 14, 2012 - registered with Liberal Party by December 11, 2012

George Takach - Website - announced November 30, 2012 - registered with Liberal Party on December 19, 2012

David Bertschi - Website - announced exploratory run April 28, 2012 - announced run November 7, 2012

Martin Cauchon - Website - registered with Liberal Party on final day (January 13, 2013)

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The Events

DateCityEventURL to Watch
Jan 20 VancouverDebateOn CPAC | Scrums
Feb 2 WinnipegDebateOn CPAC | Scrums
Feb 16 GTADebate 
Mar 3 HalifaxDebate 
Mar 23MontréalDebate 
Apr 6 TorontoShowcase 
Apr 14OttawaResults
Announced		 

The Rules

Leadership FAQ
LaunchNovember 14, 2012
Entry Fee$75,000 [2006: $50K]
Spending Limit$950,000++ from Sept 6 ff.
[2006: $3.6M]
Signatures300
Candidate Registration Cut-offJanuary 14, 2013
(90 days before vote)
Eligibility Cut-offMarch 3, 2013 (41 days before vote)
Voter Registration beginsMarch 18, 2013 (27 days before vote)
VotingApril, 2013
Winner AnnouncedApril 14, 2013
Party Leadership website
PACS Canada Media & Legislator Databases
Your Ad Here
Withdrawn / Declined

Shane Geschiere - Oct 3 - ended his exploratory bid due to the entry fee, and in order to back Justin Trudeau

Shane Geschiere FB (No FB page; FB profile here)

Dominic Leblanc - Oct 5 - took his name out of the running, and endorsed Justin Trudeau

Dominic Leblanc (not on Twitter)

Scott Brison - Oct 11 - does not seem to have ever really been in the race, as now no Atlantic candidate is reported to be running

Geoff Regan - Oct 11 - took himself out of the race, but holding fire on an endorsement - Jan 10 expected to endorse Justin Trudeau

Denis Coderre - Oct 31 - took himself out of the race, but coy on his Montréal mayoralty aspirations

Denis Coderre (No FB page; FB profile here)

Gerard Kennedy - Nov 12 - took himself out of the race when he announced a run for the Ontario Liberal leadership instead

David McGuinty - Nov 19 - took himself out of the race saying that he could best serve the party in other ways

Alex S. Burton - Website - announced exploratory run October 2, 2012 - took himself out of the race for financial reasons on Dec 11.

Jonathan Mousley - Jan 11 - unable to raise the required entry fee by the deadline

Jonathan Mousley (No FB page; FB profile here)

David Merner - Website - announced November 12, 2012 - pulled out on Jan 11 since unable to raise the required entry fee by the deadline - expected to endorse Joyce Murray

Taleeb Noormohamed - Jan 11 - does not ever seem to have been in the race, though I never found a specific reference to his declining to run.